The 7th Results

!WARNING! This article is full of spoiler info if you are not caught up on the books or are just watching the movies. Read at your own peril. Mild as it may be.

This is my old Post. I'll put the results and my comments in blue.

What are the odds on who will die in book 7? After some searching on the "net" I found little information. No one in my home town has any odds on it, so as a "Las Veegan" I'm making my own. (Send check or money orders to me to place bets - j/k). I'll go through the major characters and then discuss what I think will happen in book 7.Before that gets rolling, I had to check up on what odds actually meant. (Despite my Stat 221 class). If I say the odds are 4 to 1 (4:1) the odds of the event happening are 4 chances for the event to happen compared to 1 chance that it won't. In this case 4:1 is 80% in favor of the event happening (4/(4+1)). Good Grief. On to the predictions that I made with my crystal ball and tea leaves (Don't call my Bishop). Most are just my hunches; I don't do hours of research in the books for this so don't send me a howler. Part of the reason I'm doing this is to go on the record with my predictions and for posterity's sake.

Hairless Potter: 1:10 - There is a popular theory that J.K. will kill Harry off so no one can use him in the future, but I don't buy it. I know the prophecy says "one can't live without the other" but I just don't see the books ending on such a dark note. Rowling said Harry may die and mentioned that a character got a "reprieve", but I doubt its Harry. I'm banking on "kids books" Happy ending.

BAM!!! 1 for 1. Off to a good start. Clearly Harry was never meant to die and was not the reprive.

Ron & Hermione: 1:10 - Once again, I think there is a very low chance of the "Big 3" being killed off. These books are "triumph over evil" tales, not Greek tragedy or some other high-brow stuff where you feel cool for reading something that was "real". This franchise will sacrifice some secondary characters, but not THE main characters. Besides, these guys are set to propagate the future Order of the Phoenix crew (which will be necessary - read on) and no Dark Lord or pesky blond haired bully is going to get in their way.

BAM BAM!!! 2 for 2. And after reading the last chapter, I was quite prophetic in my predictions about propegating the future.

Ginny Weasley: 50:1 - You heard it here. Ginny is TOAST. Burnt Toast. I see her as the classic girlfriend gets murdered and drives the hero to victory. Harry just gets to survive this book. If you have a vision of Ginny and Harry flying into the sun-set on a broom forget it. Ginny has not been a major character in the majority of the books and is easily expendable. She was already used by Voldermort and will get hosed again. SHE IS NOT THE REPRIEVE.

SPLUT!! I knew this was a risky prediciton, but thought it might work. Even in this book, she didn't have much letter time. Oh well...

Voldermort: 375:1 - This is a no-brainer. I won't even explain. Death & Taxes. By the way - these are the odds R2-D2 gave Luke and Han to survive on Hoth when shut out of the base at night.

[New Year's Whitle Blows] I'm a genius!!!

Snape: 4:1 - If he is good, then he's a worthy sacrifice to get rid of V-Mort. If he is bad then he deserves to die and most likely will. I leave in the 20% chance he could survive, just to cover my big ol white butt.

4 of 5. I'm feelin it!!!

Order of the Phoenix Characters: 1:1 - Hagrid, Lupin, Tonks, Fred, George, Bill, Fleur, Mr. & Mrs. Weasley and any other contenders. I lump them all together because I'm not sure about any of them. 50% on any of them. If its the twins, I say they both die. YOU JUST DON'T SEPARATE TWINS OKAY? As for RAB - I think he is dead. If I had to pick one to get waxed, I'd say Lupin in a steel cage werewolf death-match with Greyback.

R.A.B? - bam. Twins? - Reprive. I think George was the reprieve. Lupin- pop. I was right, but the manner of death was not as I predicted.

Death Eaters: 3:1 I think the casualties for these guys are likely to be heavier. In this sort of story, more bad guys die than good ones if there are to be casualties on both sides. Wormtail, LeStrange, Lucius, Mrs. Malfoy, Draco, Crabe, Goyle, etc. All on the chopping block. Most likely to die: Wormtail. Harry saved his life and he will re-pay Harry with his life (as is the Wizard code or whatever). Least likely to die: Draco. Just feels wrong. Aint gonna happen. Mark my words fool!

I'm getting tired of being "generally" right. Draco lives on to propegate the next great pro-wrester of the modern era - SCORPIO!!!

Dursleys: 1:1,000 - What would be the point? Dud-ums and his family are going to continue their life in suburbia - a fate worse than hell.The reprieve: I think this went to Ron. He and Ginny were going to both die, but that was a bit much. Harry would have hooked-up with H-Money in their grief and loneliness, but that would have been too much drama. After all, this is witchcraft, not a day time soap opera.

Darth Vader says: All too easy... The Dudley thing was a bit of a shock. The reprieve could still have been Ron... I'll have to look this up.

Predictions (Quick & Dirty): Dumbledore is going to give Obi-wan type assistance to Harry through fawkes. RAB is dead and was Regulus Black. Harry is not a Horcrux - You don't try to originally kill something you are putting your soul into. Harry will get hosed throughout the whole book, will not gain much in the ways of skills, abilities or powers, but will win on sheer luck and LOVE. Wormtail will kill Voldermort to settle his mystical bond with Harry for saving his life. (If you read LOTR this is going to be a disappointing rip-off of 'WORM-TONGUE' and Saruman -- GOSH! They can't even change the names up! Good thing Voldermort and Saruman don't sound similar.) Bellatrix will be killed by Neville. Lupin and Tonks will get together (although it will be temporary). Snape is good and will die tying to kill V-Mort. (I know, call me if you want that explanation).

OK. This is where I got lit up. Harry was a horcrux. But - BAM! Harry got hosed, no significant new powers, and won due to LOVE. - DO I HAVE A BEARD AND SOME SEER STONES??? (no). Wormtail? I was close. Bellatrix was killed by her antithesis in the book. Not forseen by me. Ouch. BAM!!! LUPIN AND TONKS TOGETHER temporarily AND THEN DEAD!!! WOO-HOOO!!! And I was right about the HPB.

This was easily my favorite of the books. Probably becuase it was outside of school and loaded with action. The one thing I really wanted when the 6th was over was to see a 7th book about a long quest out of Hogwarts to destroy the Horcuxes and my wish was grated. I was very pleased with that. The reminising feeling was appropriate, but never over-bearing. Just right. The resolution was well thought out and meaningful on different levels. Fantastic way to end such good books. And the door is wide open for more...

Shorter Potter & The Order of the PHX

Happy Friday the 13th! Time to spout my review of the latest of Dan Fletcher - I mean Dan Radcliffe flick. Although I didn't make the 11:59 PM Tuesday night show like a die-hard, I saw this last night at a comfy 7:20 PM showing in Red Rock Staduim. I called the theater before going and grilled some poor teenager about which screen is the largest and whether or not I should see the film digitally. Suprisingly, the kid knew the answers. The digital version was on a much smaller screen, so I opted for the grand scale of the 480+- seat theater. With Cafe Rio in my gut and Hot Tamales in Julie's hands, I was ready.

Just one problem. During the eternity of previews and commercials, Jules mentioned to me that Dan Radcliffe (the actor who plays Harry) is a short guy. I'd never really noticed before. OH HOW IGNORANCE IS BLISS!!! First it was Rocky's painted eyebrows, now this. The first scene with him and Hermione, she makes him look like a WUSS. Then I kept thinking about him wearing platform shoes, standing on boxes in every scene, etc. Kinda ruined things a bit for me.

But, after a while the film took over. The main impression left on me after reading the book was an overwhelming feeling of Harry's anger and frustration. I would say it was the most angry of the six books I've read thus far. And this film lived up to it. For kids, this was probably not such a good thing. But to a jaded 30 year-old, it was great. The happy go lucky days of the first two movies are long-gone. The story really has morphed from ooh, cool magic stuff into a grim look at how people would deal with the rise of Hitler and Bin-Laden rolled into one man in black robes. What really frustrated me about the first four films is that you never really got the feel of how much Harry suffered in the books. It all seemed too happy. I think anyone who has not read the books can get a good feel for Harry's emotional struggles (in all books) by watching this one.

A theme that I found in the film was the idea of how to deal with anger and fears. Do you isolate yourself or share your burdens with others? I think I'm more of an isolation person so I could identify with this. Cutting ourselves off from people who love us because we want to spare them pain dosen't work. It was a good theme that can be applied to everyday life. Toward the middle of the film Harry wonders if he is becoming evil because of the anger he feels all the time. Sirius teaches him that we all have light an dark within us, but its which we choose to follow that defines who we are. Some days we loose, but most we win if our hearts are in the right place and we keep the people we love close.

A word about adaptaion. This was the longest book and the shortest film. Hence, it came off much more like an actual movie than a re-hashed book in pictures. Yes, TONS of things were left out, but the critical items remained and that is enough for me.

The action in the Department of Mysteries was great, and the battle between D and V was highly entertaining. I did wish that D got a little more angry (I just couldent' get enough anger!) but he gave the "You shouldn't have come here Tom" speech well. The best stuff in the movie? Voldermort. Black suite at the train station, the battle with D and inhabiting Harry - FANTASTIC. Ralph Finnes does a great job and while its not Oscar material, he makes the character very believable and sinister. But, I actually found myselft hating that Umbridge lady more than anyone by the end of the movie. And let's not forget the Weasly twins and their exit from Hogwarts. As characters in the book would say, "Brilliant." Overall, great movie. Not sure I like it better than POA, but I'd hold it equal with GOF. The PG-13 is well deserved and my kids will not be seeing this one for a long time.

HEATED Thoughts

I feel the need to put many sweaty thoughts in the blog today. Yes , it is hot here in Las Vegas, but it is a DRY HEAT. I kid you not, I'd take this any day over 95 and 35% to 50% humidity. I can get cool in the shade, I don't sweat for at least five minutes in the car, and cold water makes a difference.

We are half-way through the year and six months removed from Christmas - "The Most Wonderful Time of the Year." Therefore, the current time is antithesis to Christmas or "The Most Terrible Time of the Year." You may be thinking I don't like the 4th of July, Pioneer Day, the Pool, BBQ and Vacation. Not true, I love those things. They make this time of the year bearable. But nothing can seem to overcome the summer drought of sports action that summer months produce. Baseball? - Tons of inconsequential games within a never-ending season makes watching HGTV more entertaining. Tennis? - Should be interesting, but I always get bored with it. Bring Back McEnroe!! Golf? - How does one even get into watching that? I know many guys love it, but it seems like a sport that should only have highlights during sports center. Competitive Eating? - Kobayashi falling was interesting to see even though he had lock-jaw or some sort of ailment, but still, this sport is disturbing to watch and makes you want to hurl. Arena Football? - Nice try, but still unsatisfying. Its interesting to see a different venue, skinnier goal posts, high scoring games and laugh at cheesy team names, but I can't sink my teeth into it. I can't get over that fact that I'm not watching the ELITE. The best of the best. As the Great Ice Man once said - "the plaque for the alternates is in the AFL" (OK I changed it a bit). NASCAR? - I'm not from the south or a Gasoline family. Poker? - I don't gamble and never intend to; so learning the game and watching a bunch of dudes in sunglasses sit around a table is no good to me.

So what is there to slake my thirst for Sports in the Summer? NOTHING!!! I get Dan Patrick and the Herd guy talking about who will be the next host of the Price is Right? NBA trade rumors? NFL stories about who won't show up for camp or got thrown in jail? KILL ME KILL ME!! COME ON! DO IT NOW!!! (Thanks Arnold). Here are my solutions to the problem. If nothing is to be changed, I suggest that ESPN 2 start carrying nothing but re-runs of American Gladiators and Classic 80s NBA, NFL and MLB. PERIOD. However, if I had the power, I'd make the NBA start in February - When people would give a rip and not miss any football and thus prolong the season through the Summer and have the finals sometime in August before Baseball playoffs get too close. If only it could happen, and I could quench my thirst, but alas, I am tortured year in a year out with no end in sight and hence, this is The Most Terrible Time of the Year.